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LATEST: Full election results, by numbers

June 14, 2009

My friend Alireza Doostdar has painstakingly combed the Interior Ministry’s election results. He writes live from Tehran, after over 6 hours of research/translation and 7 hours of walking through riot police-filled streets (and being hit with their batons).

These are major numbers the Western media will not be reporting. Analysis forthcoming.

He writes:

‘Below is a list of vote results in some (maybe most) of Iran’s major cities. My source for the numbers is the PDF file released on the Interior Ministry’s website. These results don’t seem rigged to me. I’m only typing the results for the two top candidates, Ahmadinejad and Mousavi (they add up to more than 90% of the vote anyway), plus the total for each city.

‘These account for a total of 16,565,964 votes. Of these, 9,194,832 belonged to Ahmadinejad (55.5%) and 6,734,204 to Mousavi (40.1%). The national total was 39,371,214, of which Ahmadinejad got 62.5% and Mousavi 33.9%.

This leads to the obvious point everyone already predicted: Ahmadinejad did significantly better in small towns and villages, and Mousavi did significantly worse. But Ahmadinejad didn’t do bad in the big cities either (more than 55%). There are some cities, as you’ll see below, where Mousavi was a lot closer to Ahmadinejad, or even beat him (as in the most glaring case, Tehran, and especially northern Tehran).

‘I’m all for hearing Mousavi’s case for why the election was rigged. But the idea that I hear most often from people, that the results just don’t make sense, seems ridiculous to me. Mousavi kicked ass in Tehran, and did very well in Yazd, in Turkish-speaking areas, and among the Kurds and Baluch (all regions with known ethnic minority issues that Mousavi capitalized on).

‘Please bring on the evidence that the election votes were rigged.’

Tehran (Mid- and South)
Total: 4,179,188
Ahmadinejad: 1,809,855 (43.3%)
Mousavi: 2,166,245 (51.8%)

Tehran (North – Shemiranat)
Total: 320,114
Ahmadinejad: 102,433 (32%)
Mousavi: 200,931 (62.8%)

Karaj (city to west of Tehran)
Total: 950,243
Ahmadinejad: 510,509 (53.7%)
Mousavi: 397,906 (41.9%)

Tabriz (major Turkish-speaking city)
Total: 876,919
Ahmadinejad: 435,728 (49.7%)
Mousavi: 419,983 (47.9%)

Orumiyeh (another major Turkish-speaking city)
Total: 445,344
Ahmadinejad: 234,600 (52.7%)
Mousavi: 199,682 (44.8%)

Ardebil (a third major Turkish-speaking city)
Total: 285,700
Ahmadinejad: 137,220 (48%)
Mousavi: 140,582 (49.2%)

Isfahan (major city in central Iran. I’m surprised Mousavi did so poorly here. Isfahanis have any insights?)
Total: 1,095,399
Ahmadinejad: 666,955 (60.1%)
Mousavi: 389,459 (35.6%)

Kashan (city in central Iran, known to be highly conservative)
Total: 182,031
Ahmadinejad: 127,771 (70.2%)
Mousavi: 47,740 (26.2%)

Bushehr (city in the south, by the Persian Gulf. extremely deprived. why did Mousavi do well here?)
Total: 125,718
Ahmadinejad: 65,842 (52.4%)
Mousavi: 54,637 (43.5%)

Varamin (city to the south of Tehran. much more conservative than Tehran)
Total: 265,520
Ahmadinejad: 190,690 (71.8%)
Mousavi: 66,847 (25.2%)

Mashhad (holy city in northeast)
Total: 1,536,106
Ahmadinejad: 1,027,273 (66.9%)
Mousavi: 459,011 (29.9%)

Ahvaz (oil city, southwest)
Total: 663,609
Ahmadinejad: 399,240 (60.2%)
Mousavi: 223,107 (33.6%)

Total: 279,301
Ahmadinejad: 200,307 (71.7%)
Mousavi: 69,944 (25%)

Zahedan (Baluch city, southwest)
Total: 268,191
Ahmadinejad: 120,978 (45.1%)
Mousavi: 140,118 (52.2%)

Shiraz (big city in the south. I’m surprised Mousavi did poorly here as well)
Total: 947,168
Ahmadinejad: 568,009 (60%)
Mousavi: 352,082 (37.2%)

Qazvin (city near Tehran)
Total: 328,077
Ahmadinejad: 220,856 (67.3%)
Mousavi: 96,973 (29.6%)

Qom (cleric central. go figure)
Total: 599,040
Ahmadinejad: 422,457 (70.5%)
Mousavi: 148,467 (24.8%)

Sanandaj (major Kurdish city in the West)
Total: 165,726
Ahmadinejad: 80,936 (48.8%)
Mousavi: 74,987 (45.2%)

Kerman (major southeastern city, close to Bam, the famous earthquake-hit town. big drug problem.)
Total: 396,530
Ahmadinejad: 266,668 (67.2%)
Mousavi: 118,173 (29.8%)

Kermanshah (lots of Shi’a and Ahl-e Haqq Kurds here)
Total: 503,575
Ahmadinejad: 290,959 (57.8%)
Mousavi: 197,303 (39.2%)

Gorgan (northern city)
Total: 227,977
Ahmadinejad: 141,203 (61.9%)
Mousavi: 79,760 (35.0%)

Gonbad-e Kavoos (also northern)
Total: 130,002
Ahmadinejad: 62,858 (48.4%)
Mousavi: 62,782 (48.3%)

Rasht (another northern city, near the Caspian)
Total: 484,075
Ahmadinejad: 298,146 (61.6%)
Mousavi: 175,041 (36.2%)

Sari (also close to the Caspian)
Total: 317,768
Ahmadinejad: 211,712 (66.6%)
Mousavi: 98,376 (31.0%)

Arak (central Iran)
Total: 319,014
Ahmadinejad: 210,321 (65.9%)
Mousavi: 96,853 (30.4%)

Hamedan (is this center-West? I’m too tired to check the map)
Total: 381,743
Ahmadinejad: 257,514 (67.5%)
Mousavi: 109,125 (28.6%)

Yazd (central Iran, close to Isfahan)
Total: 291,886
Ahmadinejad: 133,792 (45.8%)
Mousavi: 148,090 (50.7%)

15 Comments leave one →
  1. Bahush permalink
    June 14, 2009 21:06

    You wanna know why it was rigged?

    add the total accepted votes and the total unaccepted votes….it should equal to the total votes casts…right?! WRONG….there is 98,784 votes difference….interesting ha?!

    u want more proof?
    y not look at this page:

    the actual page on fars news is now removed. find anything interesting? well, let me make it easy for u….if you add all the votes for each candidate up…it will add up to total votes casts….hmm….was there not any unaccepted votes? surely out of 25million votes casted at the time….some were white/rubish….

    or ofcourse not… iran everything is possible ;)

  2. Bahush permalink
    June 14, 2009 21:11

    I hope they dont change the file anytime soon, but for those who dont undestand the persian language….total votes cast is the 3rd column from the right, total unaccepted votes in 2nd from the right and total accepted is 1st from the right….

  3. Bahush permalink
    June 14, 2009 21:18

    this is the actual link to the fars news website, the site is out of service at the mo:

  4. Bahush permalink
    June 14, 2009 22:08

    Well, seems the reasons on electoral fraud keep on coming:

    the page above shows the “FINAL” results announced by the electoral commision (Head of interior ministry): somehow the total votes counted is:39,165,191 not the 39,371,214 that the website seems to be saying….
    Funny how the head of the elctoral commision seems to be doing a good job of not knowing his numbers….i might doubt he can count from 1 to 10 :)

  5. Irani permalink
    June 15, 2009 08:44

    Really Bahush, you think that if they were manufacturing numbers, they wouldn’t be smart enough to take care of that kind of discrepancy?

    I haven’t added up the numbers on the Excel sheet, but I think the difference you point to might have to do with results from outside of Iran, which may not have been factored into that particular report you point to.

  6. June 15, 2009 11:07

    Thanks for this. There’s a lot more information here than is being currently disseminated by people like Christopher Hitchens. Most reactions against the election in the West seem to be motivated by prejudice rather than facts. It’s heartening that someone bothers to look at the actual figures.

  7. justimage permalink
    June 15, 2009 11:15

    great work alireza and SS blog! keep getting actual INFORMATION out there!

  8. June 16, 2009 02:43

    before presenting these numbers, it is worth asking why it took two days for these results to be released by the interior ministry, whereas in all prior elections province-by-province results were announced as they were counted. minutes after polls in tehran closed, IRNA reported AN’s victory by very similar margins to the final results (remember, these are hand written ballots) – and then that page disappeared. furthermore, the percentages of the original tallies released in regional waves barely varied (stayed between 63-69, if i remember correctly). but when you map out the results, as nate silver has done here:
    it appears that there should have been at least a little more variation.

    and i’ve heard other questions as well, like how karrubi could have won fewer popular votes then members of his political party, and, of course, lost luristan (his home province) by such a wide margin.

    look, i have nothing invested in mousavi, and if rafsanjani does end up the winner of these protests, it will be a great disservice to all of those who have been beaten and killed. i will note, however, that according to Karrubi, many of the election monitoring committees formed by Karrubi and Mousavi were not permitted to monitor the results, which is perhaps part of the reason why hard proof is missing.

  9. southissouth permalink
    June 16, 2009 15:31

    fb: I think presenting the numbers (esp. when the Western media with its multi-million dollar news coverage budgets is not translating or analyzing much) is important. Also, we’ve considered what the results would look like if Mousavi and the other two candidates’ numbers were right. It is impossible that AN won 20% of the vote only. I agree that the Karrubi results look irregular, and would like to see more actual information and analysis to that effect. Nb: a candidate does not by a magic law win his/her hometown, though I am wide open to analysis of fishy results. Totally agree on the last part: Rafsanjani has blood on his hands, and he is the person I will be watching with the most distress in the coming weeks.

  10. June 20, 2013 19:43

    Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you
    could be giving us something informative to read?

  11. June 23, 2013 06:05

    There is definately a lot to find out about this
    topic. I love all of the points you made.

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